Big Weather Picture: Oct. 12-18

by Tornado Bob

The weather this coming week may be best described as "dull". We will have mostly mostly cloudy weather with occasional chances of light snow or rain as warm air attempts to move in from the southwest and our cold high pressure attempts to remain in place. Liquid equivalent precipitation may be 0.15" to 0.30". Highs will be in the 30s and 40s most of the week with lows in the 20s and 30s. The main storm track remains mostly to our south and west like it has for the past couple months. By the second half of this coming weekend (17th/18th), we'll have breezy conditions and temperatures returning to average for this time of year (near 50 for highs).

You can hear Tornado Bob on the KAXE Monday Morning Show at 8:40.

Dr. Bob Conzemius is senior scientist at the WindLogics Research Center in Grand Rapids.

Tornado Bob's weekly weather report: Colder Weather on the Way, First Flakes by Friday

The early part of this week will essentially be a repeat of last week with a significant storm system moving just to our south. Again, the most rain will fall across central and southern Minnesota with amounts in excess of an inch likely in the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Little Falls, and Morris. We sure could use those amounts here because we're about six inches short on moisture for 2009, although the Twin Cities needs it worse-- before last weeks rains, they were 14-16 inches short on moisture since June 1, 2008!

Expect rain to start Monday evening, persist throughout the nighttime and daytime Tuesday, and move out of the area Tuesday evening. Places along the Canadian border from International Falls westward may not see any rain, and amounts will be larger to the south, with nearly an inch possible in Brainerd. 0.25" looks like the most probable amount in Grand Rapids.

We'll have a brief break on Wednesday, then a strong cold front will sweep through Wednesday night, bringing a chance of showers. An Arctic air mass will then pour into the region and settle in through the upcoming weekend. Cold air aloft, combined with warmth and moisture provided by the open lakes, will produce some instability in the atmosphere, resulting in scattered rain and snow showers from Thursday through Sunday. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. The upcoming pattern looks like a repeat of what we had over the summer except that it is now fall, and that means some freezing weather.

Tornado Bob's Forecast for week of 2/16/09

Slightly snowier... maybe.

First of all, many thanks to the trail groomers for getting to Legion Park and Sugar Hills after the rain last week. It's nice to have the season continue after such dismal weather.

An area of low pressure will be slowly organizing over the next couple days in the central United States. Also, an upper level weather disturbance will be moving across southern Canada. Eventually, these two systems will merge into one large storm system over Michigan. As this happens, scattered areas of light snow will be present over the area through Wednesday. The heaviest amounts will be (of course) along the international border, where 3" will likely fall. Another band of 3" or so will be found across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Overall, the heaviest snows this week will be well to the east in Michigan. In the KAXE listening area, this week has a better chance than any of the last four weeks for a snowfall in the 1-2" range. Still, I'd rate that chance at only 50% in Grand Rapids. The storm system will depart our area Wednesday night.

On Friday, a fairly intense but moisture-starved low pressure system will drop south out of Canada and bring more light snow to the area. Amounts will most likely be in the 0.5" range.

Temperatures will be mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s and lows generally no colder than about 20, but as the storm system departs, it will pull in colder air, and highs will be mostly in the low-mid teens with lows near zero. The weather for the Birkie on Saturday looks breezy (northwest winds) with highs in the mid teens.

We're entering what typically is our "second season" for snowfall. As I'm looking into the "dreamland" portion of the numerical model prognostications, I'm starting to see indications for significant snow somewhere in the Upper Midwest in the February 23-26 time period.

-Bob

Weather Big Picture for February 9-15

We'll be getting some rain this week in addition to a 36-48 hour period of melting snow. The high temperatures in the 30s on Friday and Sunday did not do much damage to the ski trails because the clear skies, low humidity, and brief period of warmth kept prevented much melting. This time, however, the persistent, cloudy, drizzly/rainy weather we are about to experience will definitely diminish the snow pack. I'm not sure how the groomers deal with this type of situation, but my best estimate is the temperature will climb above freezing Monday morning and hover in the 34-38 degree range until Tuesday night when it drops back to around freezing, but it could be as long as Wednesday evening before the temperature drops enough to refreeze things. Total rainfall will probably be about 0.5" in Grand Rapids. My guess is the snow depth in the woods will diminish from about 15-18" now to about 9-14" by Tuesday night. I'm not great at predicting snow melt, but I think there may some opportunity to groom the trails after this system if one gets out shortly after freezup and before the slush gets too hard. (FYI, I skied Suomi this weekend, and Boomer and company did a fantastic job there on Friday).

Thereafter, the rest of the week should be dry. Temperatures will fall to slightly below average by this weekend with highs in the teens and lows near zero. Looking farther ahead, the large scale pattern looks unfavorable for new snow.

Do be careful driving over the next couple days. Even if the air temperature is warm, the roads are still cold after a lot of subzero weather this winter, so driving may be quite icy-- especially on side roads.

For more information on Cross Country ski conditions, check out the KAXE Ski Talk blog!

Weather Picture for December 29-January 5 from Tornado Bob

Monday morning update:

Last night's snow was largest along the international border with up to 3" in Cook, International Falls and 2" in northern Itasca County. Just a dusting of snow occurred in Grand Rapids.

Tuesday's snows will occur south of Highway 2. There will be a narrow, east-west band of 3-6" between Brainerd and the Twin Cities. I do not expect any accumulation in Grand Rapids-- and maybe just a dusting in Bemidji. The snow will start just after midnight and end just after noon on Tuesday. The heaviest snow will fall around sunrise.

Thursday may bring a general 2-5" snowfall across the entire area as another trough of low pressure moves into the area.


(Sunday evening post)

The snowy pattern continues this week as a series of weak low pressure systems moves across Minnesota under relatively fast west to east flow aloft. We'll have chances of snow early Monday morning (along and north of Highway 2), Tuesday (south of Highway 2), and Thursday (over the whole area). Each of these events appears capable of providing snows in the 1-4" range, but Tuesday's snow could drop up to 6" south of Brainerd. Temperatures will generally be near or slightly below average for late December. That means high temperatures in the teens and lows a little bit below zero.

Generally, there are no major storms on the horizon, but we'll have a chance of snow about every other day for about the next 10 days. After that, it looks like the overall weather pattern will become somewhat less snowy, but the temperature will probably be good for skiing.