Monday, February 16, 2009

Tornado Bob's Forecast for week of 2/16/09

Slightly snowier... maybe.

First of all, many thanks to the trail groomers for getting to Legion Park and Sugar Hills after the rain last week. It's nice to have the season continue after such dismal weather.

An area of low pressure will be slowly organizing over the next couple days in the central United States. Also, an upper level weather disturbance will be moving across southern Canada. Eventually, these two systems will merge into one large storm system over Michigan. As this happens, scattered areas of light snow will be present over the area through Wednesday. The heaviest amounts will be (of course) along the international border, where 3" will likely fall. Another band of 3" or so will be found across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Overall, the heaviest snows this week will be well to the east in Michigan. In the KAXE listening area, this week has a better chance than any of the last four weeks for a snowfall in the 1-2" range. Still, I'd rate that chance at only 50% in Grand Rapids. The storm system will depart our area Wednesday night.

On Friday, a fairly intense but moisture-starved low pressure system will drop south out of Canada and bring more light snow to the area. Amounts will most likely be in the 0.5" range.

Temperatures will be mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 20s and lows generally no colder than about 20, but as the storm system departs, it will pull in colder air, and highs will be mostly in the low-mid teens with lows near zero. The weather for the Birkie on Saturday looks breezy (northwest winds) with highs in the mid teens.

We're entering what typically is our "second season" for snowfall. As I'm looking into the "dreamland" portion of the numerical model prognostications, I'm starting to see indications for significant snow somewhere in the Upper Midwest in the February 23-26 time period.


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